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Restatement of VNI global mobile data traffic

We are appreciate the global mobile data traffic forecasts provided by Cisco's VNI team. However, we found some restatements of actual data you provided. Such as in Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Forecast, 2017–2022 white paper, the actual total mobile data traffic was 6.7EB per month for 2016, but in 2016-2021 white paper, the actual total mobile data traffic was 7.2EB per month for 2016. Thus, it's a bit difficult to compare actual data in 2017 to 2016 due to the restatements of historical data, which were not provided in latest white paper.

 

If it is possible, could you provide restated historical actual data for better comparison and to learn the growth trend?

Thanks VNI team's efforts for maintaining the useful database. 

   

 

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Cisco Employee

Re: Restatement of VNI global mobile data traffic

Thanks for your interest in Cisco VNI Global Mobile Forecast.  Following are the numbers for global mobile traffic:

Cisco VNI IP Traffic Volumes - Historical and Forecast      
         
Region: Global      
Traffic Segment Mobile      
         
         
Year Traffic (PB/mo)      
2005                         1      
2006                         3   Note:  
2007                       11   2005-2016 Actual
2008                       30   2017 Estimated
2009                       75   2018-2022 Projected
2010                     199      
2011                     399      
2012                     686      
2013                  1,292      
2014                  2,379      
2015                  4,408      
2016                  6,738      
2017                11,512      
2018                19,009      
2019                28,560      
2020                40,770      
2021                56,799      
2022                77,493      
         
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) IP Traffic 2017-2022  

 

As you know the base year of the forecast is our estimates that we true up next year to actuals based upon the data that gets actually reported by operators and other regulatory agencies around the world.

 

I hope the above is helpful.


Regards,

Shruti

Cisco VNI team

View solution in original post

3 REPLIES 3
Highlighted
Cisco Employee

Re: Restatement of VNI global mobile data traffic

Thanks for your interest in Cisco VNI Global Mobile Forecast.  Following are the numbers for global mobile traffic:

Cisco VNI IP Traffic Volumes - Historical and Forecast      
         
Region: Global      
Traffic Segment Mobile      
         
         
Year Traffic (PB/mo)      
2005                         1      
2006                         3   Note:  
2007                       11   2005-2016 Actual
2008                       30   2017 Estimated
2009                       75   2018-2022 Projected
2010                     199      
2011                     399      
2012                     686      
2013                  1,292      
2014                  2,379      
2015                  4,408      
2016                  6,738      
2017                11,512      
2018                19,009      
2019                28,560      
2020                40,770      
2021                56,799      
2022                77,493      
         
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) IP Traffic 2017-2022  

 

As you know the base year of the forecast is our estimates that we true up next year to actuals based upon the data that gets actually reported by operators and other regulatory agencies around the world.

 

I hope the above is helpful.


Regards,

Shruti

Cisco VNI team

View solution in original post

Highlighted
Beginner

Re: Restatement of VNI global mobile data traffic

Hi Shruti,

 

Thank you and VNI team very much for providing the data. It is very very helpful.

 

I understood that the base year is estimated, and I believe it's would be more helpful if we could get actual numbers when it true up next year for better comparison.

If it is possible, could we have the actual data (2013-2016) by device type and by region as below?

We really appreciate your team's help and believe the data is very useful for lots of researchers. 

Thank you a lot!

 

Capture2.PNG

Re: Restatement of VNI global mobile data traffic

Hi, Shjain:

 

0)   So glad to spot this thread of discussion!

 

1)   We have been studying the Internet performance history and are interested in the Total Global IP Traffic data such as the last row of the following table from a whitepaper:

 

   https://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/white-paper-c11-741490.html

 

Table 8.       Global IP traffic, 2017–2022

IP Traffic, 2017–2022

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

CAGR (2017–2022)

By Type (Petabytes [EB] per Month)

Fixed Internet

85

107

137

174

219

273

26%

Managed IP

26

31

35

40

44

45

11%

Mobile data

12

19

29

41

57

77

46%

By Segment (EB per Month)

Consumer

100

129

167

212

267

333

27%

Business

22

27

34

42

52

63

23%

By Geography (EB per Month)

Asia Pacific

43

59

80

105

136

173

32%

North America

42

52

63

77

92

108

21%

Western Europe

18

22

27

33

41

50

22%

Central and Eastern Europe

8

10

12

15

20

25

26%

Middle East and Africa

4

5

7

10

15

21

41%

Latin America

7

9

11

13

16

19

21%

Total (EB per Month)

Total IP traffic

122

156

201

254

319

396

26%

Source: Cisco VNI, 2018

 

2)   From our best understanding of this series of annual documents, only data in the first column of each table was actual. Numbers for the five additional years were projections. Since we are already in February 2020, I thought that the equivalent data for Years 2018 & 2019 would be available somewhere by now. However, I failed to locate such after diligent web searches. Would you please shed some lights on this to expedite our efforts?

 

Thank you so much,

 

Abe (2020-02-09 11:18 EST)

 

 

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