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Business Models being Redefined...

knagesh
Level 1
Level 1

The mobile space is inherently an exciting space. Now it has ratcheted up to a new level with the Mobile Internet Transformation.

We see three main pillars for this transformation:

  1. Delivering an integrated customer experience. This transformation will unfold over the next several years as billions of users and tens of billions of devices embrace innovative voice, video, and data applications, person to person, machine to person, and machine to machine.
  2. Scalability and performance of the infrastructure to address the data explosion on the Internet.
  3. Innovative business models and service control to help our service providers monetize the mobile Internet using their IP network and maximizing the ROI on their assets, especially the precious radio assets.

Let me share a few thoughts on the business models that are emerging, and invite you to participate in this discussion.

  • Broadband services as a utility: Some cities and countries are beginning to take this approach. Utility that you cannot be without, just like water and electricity. Investments will be massive but the ROI would be low, similar to those of the other utilities. Guaranteed and low risk. In this scenario, application providers would innovate by riding on top of the infrastructure built by the SPs, may be funded by the governments or citizens (say, through bonds). The providers would merely become access/transport providers. Innovation from the SPs would be in the areas of scale, coverage, roaming, and other foundational services.
  • Service Providers Creating New Value Chains: In this context, the free market innovations from the service providers are at their best. SPs will deploy, scale, and offer services they can monetize. You may see a tussle between the traditional SP models and the Internet-centric models during the transition. Consumers will have a tremendous say in shaping the transition and the velocity of innovation. You will also see SPs look to incremental revenue sources by exploiting their real-time knowledge of the consumer location, behavior patterns, and opted in preferences. Targeted advertising, tiered services, turbo options, are all viable examples. Here, the challenges include privacy, security, and regulatory concerns. I believe the industry will overcome these obstacles using the network intelligence and automation. The SPs in developed countries have the business intelligence to disrupt value chains where appropriate and create new ones. The governance model needs to adapt. On the other hand, emerging countries may leap frog and experiment some of these new methods just because there is no legacy of rules and regulations! We need to keep a close watch on these.
  • Busines as Usual: The least desirable option but many SPs may actually end up doing it. The geographical presence may be a savior in the short run. But the long term prospects are not good and many SPs will see shrinking revenues and subscriber base.

Where there is risk, there is reward. Where there is opportunity, there is innovation. More power to the Mobile Internet. The ones that execute successfully will capitalize and thrive during this transformation. The ones that fail to do so will slowly wither away.

What do you think? If you are an SP, how is your company navigating these challenges?

5 Replies 5

petercf01
Level 1
Level 1

Interesting proposition for SPs.

We have spent the last 2 years focusing on the Wholesale v SP debate and the creation of a Wholesale Wireless Broadband business model that supports multiple SPs, irrespective of their goals.

It will be interesing to see whether wholesale, open access networks remain a developed nation phenomena or slowly penetrate the developing markets as well

Peter

Thank you Peter for engaging in this important discussion.

In your analysis did you see any correlation between the viability of the wholesale (broadband access as a utility) model and the size of the jurisdiction?

Cities (or small countries like Singapore) may support in this model as a strategic differentiator. In the process the cities may get broadband access for the government functions, revenue sharing from app vendors, etc. Citizen bonds may fund the investment too.

Nagesh

Nagesh,

Interesting question. To date we have modeled this for both Municipal and Rural deployments, former with 50+ towns and the latter for approx 60% of the UK by geography. However this year we have seen a large town, 100,000+ pop, launch an Open Access Wholesale fibre network for approx 30% of the town covering a deprived area. Second we just engaging with a County to deploy a Wholesale wireless pilot network for 2 villages to prove whether it can work.

So in short, really there is no relation between size and viability however price points mean that the appropriate technology and build model need to be considered hand-in-hand ith the business model.

I concur 100% with your second statement. We seeing Municipal Authorities saying that with a wholesale apporach, it allows them to engage with either existing SPs or specialised SPs who meet their criteria and yet can still benefit from wholesale access to a wireless network. In this way, as you say, the government dept's can look t extend their reach direct to citizens and to where their employees are located and work, without having to worry about the network.

We are also now seeing local government authorities looking to short term loans, rather than bonds, to help fund network build while not running fowl of State Aid laws.

Peter

Curious why short-term loans. I am hoping that interest rates are still low that a good city may be able to float bonds at competitive rates.

In the US, unfortunately, cities' ratings have gone down and floating bonds is demanding higher yields. With the interest rates, likely going up in the future, this may be the time to plan the future!

Nagesh

Short term = 5 years.

Today most local government authorities have more than adequate capital reserves, but have been held back on spending because this would normally mean a consequential revenue [opex] spend. Councils have currently to deliver 3% yr on yr revenue savings.

Therefore they have figured that if they make loans based on their capital reserves, that then cause savings, they get new services while meeting their savings targets - so called 'spend to save'.

So we see them willing to invest these capital reserves on projects (eg wireless) that then give them greater than 3% savings (typically 10 to 18%) on revenue budgets for these projects by new ways of working - eg mobile worker, teleworker, reduction in fibre and switch to wireless.

Peter