Above: Watch the VNI Mobile Forecast Summary and Key Takeaways video
The Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update is part of the comprehensive Cisco VNI Forecast, an ongoing initiative to track and forecast the impact of visual networking applications on global networks. The Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2013-2018 white paper presents some of the major of Cisco's major global mobile data traffic projections and growth trends. I will be giving a quick overview and glance at some of the key highlights taken from the white paper, released February 5th.
The Mobile Network in 2013
The Mobile Network Through 2018
● Monthly global mobile data traffic will surpass 15 exabytes by 2018.
● The number of mobile-connected devices will exceed the world’s population by 2014.
● The average mobile connection speed will surpass 2 Mbps by 2016.
● Due to increased usage on smartphones, smartphones will reach 66 percent of mobile data traffic by 2018.
● Monthly mobile tablet traffic will surpass 2.5 exabyte per month by 2018.
● Tablets will exceed 15 percent of global mobile data traffic by 2016.
● 4G traffic will be more than half of the total mobile traffic by 2018.
● There will be more traffic offloaded from cellular networks (on to Wi-Fi) than remain on cellular networks by 2018.
Global Mobile Data Traffic, 2013 to 2018
While there is an overall growth in the number of mobile devices and connections, there is also a visible shift in the device mix. Throughout the forecast period, we see that the device mix is getting smarter with an increasing number of devices with higher computing resources, network connection capabilities that create a growing demand for more capable and intelligent networks. We define smart devices and connections as those having advanced computing and multimedia capabilities with a minimum of 3G connectivity. As mentioned previously, 526 million mobile devices and connections were added in 2013, and smartphones accounted for 77 percent of that growth at 406 million net adds. The share of smart devices and connections as a percentage of the total will increase from 21 percent in 2013 to more than half, at 54 percent, by 2018, growing 3.8 fold during the forecast period (Figure 4).
One topic analyzed within the forecast was mobile video and its dominance when it comes to mobile applications. Mobile video will grow at a CAGR of 69% between 2013 and 2018, the highest growth rate of any mobile application category that we forecast, other than machine-to-machine traffic. Mobile video represented more than half of global mobile data traffic beginning in 2012, indicating that it is having an immediate impact on traffic today, not just in the future. Refer to Figure 10 taken from the VNI Mobile Forecast, 2013-2018 white paper on how mobile video will generate over 69% of mobile data traffic by 2018:
All the above information is from the Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2013-2018 white paper.
In the white paper, not only will you find more data taken from 2013 as well as more predictions for global mobile data traffic through to 2018 but in depth information and charts regarding the following trends:
View or download the full white paper today here.
Join us on February 25, 2014 at 8am PT/11am ET for a webcast where the Cisco VNI team will share the forecast's findings and answer your questions. Register now here.
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