IP Traffic per capita vs. average Internet traffic per user

[shjain]

I’m digging into the VNI report (released on June 7th, 2016) and are looking for some local Swedish angles… however I have some questions:

According to the online VNI Highlights tool for investigating the material on a country leveL

it says:

In Sweden, IP traffic will reach 103 Gigabytes per capita in 2020, up from 49 Gigabytes per capita in 2015 – I assume this is for the full year

Later down it also says:

In Sweden, the average Internet user will generate 81.0 gigabytes of Internet traffic per month in 2020, up 87% from 43.4 gigabytes per month in 2015, a CAGR of 13%.

Now, for me first number (103 GB)  appears from my experience too low – especially if the second one (81 GB/month) is right. That would indicate that the first number should be at least 12*81=960 GB

Is it me misunderstanding something or am I just confused over the definitions (there are no definition of difference between IP and Internet traffic, I assume that IP is all traffic and that Internet traffic is a subset of IP traffic).

Could you point me in some direction where I can understand this better?

[shjain · Accepted solution]

Answer:

The two averages below – per capita  and per Internet user are both monthly numbers.

-          In Sweden, IP traffic will reach 103 Gigabytes per capita in 2020, up from 49 Gigabytes per capita in 2015 –this takes the monthly IP traffic for Sweden and looks at it on a per Swedish population basis (1.0 EB per month IP traffic by 2020 divided by 10.1 million forecasted population in 2020 for Sweden)

-          In Sweden, the average Internet user will generate 81.0 gigabytes of Internet traffic per month in 2020, up 87% from 43.4 gigabytes per month in 2015, a CAGR of 13%. – this is taking a slightly different view, looking at only the fixed consumer Internet traffic per month and looking at it on per fixed Internet user basis (661 PB of consumer Internet traffic by 2020 divided by ~8.2 million forecasted fixed Internet users by 2020 for Sweden)

I hope the above helps answer the question.

Thanks,
Shruti

Cisco VNI Team