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Yes, I did misunderstand.
If the NAT is on the router, than yes, you should be able to police to your VLANs on it.
NAT might still be an issue on the external interface, matching your internal subnets, but you're inside facing interface should be okay. I.e. rather than using an ingress policy on your external facing interface, you use an egress policy on your internal facing interface. That policy would be where you would police your 5 and 10 Mbps per subnet (VLANs 2 and 3).
Again, be aware, that policing downstream isn't as effective as really desired (NB: it will insure your VLANs only obtain their respective allowed bandwidths, but it won't guarantee the ISP link won't congest - because the congestion is "before" the policers).
