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Normally you shape for the next bottleneck you cannot manage (this allows you do manage congestion upstream from the natural bottleneck). For an ADSL port, you would shape egress for your upstream bandwidth.
As I believe many Cisco shapers don't account for L2 overhead, you can shape "slower" to allow for that overhead. Unfortunately, L2 overhead, as a percentage, varies based on packet's size. What I generally do is shape "slower" for my expected average overhead, usually by 10 to 15 percent.
PS:
Don't use shape peak, it usually doesn't opeate as I believe it should, and I doubt your ADSL has provided peak bursting; so, just shape aveage.
Pre-HQF IOS shapers use FQ. Post HQF IOS shapers use FIFO, so for the latter, I would recommend a child policy, with a class-default, using FQ. This assuming you don't already have a more complicated child policy.
